THE PROTEST POTENTIAL OF BLACK SEA REGION AREA UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE NEW ELECTORAL CYCLE (ON THE EXAMPLE OF KRASNODAR REGION)

The researchers have presented the analysis of the potential protest of the Black Sea area in the background of the development of a new electoral cycle between 2016-2018. The analysis shows that in Russia as a whole (according to the expert opinion) protest activity will increase. Protests related to the elections in Russia (the State Duma elections of the President), as well as the dissatisfaction of the population a significant reduction in quality of life, will wear, as opposed to the "Marsh" protest movement 2011-2013 a regional rather than nationwide character. The article shows the feature of the Black Sea area as a multi-ethnic, cross-border and strategically significant macro-analyze possible risks associated with the onset and development of a new electoral cycle. It is shown that the main threat to the stability of the macro-region in the development of the electoral situation is extremist movements, "playing" in the ethnic conflicts that, in relation to all the growing influx of migrants to the region, have considerable potential for conflict.
As the factual data are the results of sociological research, conducted in the Krasnodar region in June 2016 and aimed at the study of the socio-economic situation of residents of the province, inter-ethnic situation and measurement of potential protest in the region. In the frame of research in the article there have been  discussed the following areas of analysis: assessment of the level of inter-ethnic tensions in the Krasnodar region, related to the migration policy, the level of life of the inhabitants of the region, assessment of the potential for protest and a description of the socio-demographic parameters, method of binary logistic regression was used to assess the significance of protest activity factors. Analysis of data from empirical research was made the general conclusion that the Krasnodar Territory does not stand out from the average indicators for the level of protest potential. The tendency of the population to the manifestation of protest activity in the region is due not so much socio-demographic factors, as personal security factors, for example fear of life and social well-being.

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