Diagnostics of Socio-Demographic Security of the Region

Introduction. Socio-demographic security is a structural element of the country’s general national security system and has as its ultimate result ensuring security of the state from the impact of the complex of factors of the external and internal environment that cause various threats. In this regard, there is an objective need for its systematic diagnostics based on the use of indicators that adequately reflect the dominant processes occurring in regional economic systems.

The dynamics of Russian regions development are currently determined by the most important trends: strengthening technological sovereignty, outstripping the growth of manufacturing industries within the framework of technological paradigm 4.0 and preparation for work in the conditions of the sixth technological paradigm; digitalization of regional economy as part of the all-Russian global digital transition; development of various forms of spatial economy and business ecosystems; carrying out targeted work to reduce poverty and inequality, increase real incomes of residents of the regions; protection of motherhood and childhood; modernization of healthcare.

These areas of the regional economy modernization generate a multiplier effect in the context of their impact on sociodemographic security of the region, which determines the need to reflect them in the system of indicators. The approaches currently proposed in economic studies to diagnose socio-demographic security of the territory do not sufficiently take into account these trajectories and contain mainly only instructions that such research should be carried out.

Taking into account modern theoretical study of problems of diagnosing socio-demographic security of the region, the purpose of this article is to clarify a number of definitions (the concept of socio-demographic security, its place in the country’s national security system) and to supplement the existing indicators of diagnosing socio-demographic security of the region with new ones reflecting additional trends of the regional economy in the context of modern economic realities.

Materials and Methods. Scientific publications are used to diagnose socio-demographic security of the region. Classic tools for collecting and processing information (official statistical indicators), methods of grouping data (compiling tables and calculating absolute deviation and growth rates in order to determine dynamic changes according to the grouped data), visualization (graphs) are used. Based on the analysis, the flow chart for diagnosing socio-demographic security of the region is conceptually integrated into the system for increasing the indicators of sustainable development of the region and takes into account the features of socio-economic transformations at the state level.

Results. The basic concept in the studied issue is such as “security”, the essential content of which is different among domestic authors. It is characteristic that it is studied in various sciences (biology, economics, psychology, sociology).

A number of articles carry out the historical genesis of the formation of this concept starting from the Middle Ages and ending with the current legislation in this area [3, 4, 12]. All authors conclude that despite the consistent formation and development of security legislation, the question of its essential content remains open. Nevertheless, the understanding of security as the ability (properties, qualities) of a certain system to resist encroachments or such a state of the object, which is characterized by protection from danger or the absence of the possibility of destructive impact, is firmly entrenched in business circulation and can be accepted as basic in this scientific study.

The problem field of the study of the security phenomenon also includes its various types, identified according to various criteria, the most common of which is such as a security object (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Security types according to security object criterion

As for the category of socio-demographic security of the region, in this formulation it was defined by I.V. Tatarkin as the state of the region and its development trends, which ensures the stability of its functioning and the stable nature of the population reproduction processes, as well as decent living and personal development conditions [18]. Definition close to this was proposed by E. Nekrasova as a state of social protection of the material and spiritual needs of residents of the territory of the municipality from threats [11]. In the future, there is a separate consideration of the categories of demographic and social security. At the same time, in the overwhelming majority of definitions, demographic security is interpreted as one of the factors for maintaining economic security of the region which consists in maintaining a decent standard of living for population, as well as its stable socio-economic situation [16, 17, 9, p. 259]. In turn, social security is characterized as an indicator of the high quality of social relations that characterize the ability of each member of modern Russian society to realize their internal potential, while being outside the field of threat of economic and physical degradation, even in a situation of a decrease in the level and quality of life [2, p. 435].

Taking into account the approaches of various researchers of the analyzed problems, as well as the current state of socio-demographic sphere of the Russian regions, it is proposed to understand socio-demographic security of the region as such a state of the regional socio-economic system which ensures expanded reproduction of the region’s labor resources and maintaining their living standards within the minimum permissible boundaries of the human development index.

Such a definition of socio-demographic security of the region is due to important circumstances:

1. In Russia, there is a steady decline in the number of working-age population, that is, people with physical and intellectual abilities to work. In other words, this is both a real and potentially suitable population for the labor process. According to various forecasts, the decline in working-age population until 2030 will amount from 11 to 13 million people, which in the future can create huge difficulties within the Russian labor market [13, p. 361].

2. The country is characterized by an increase in working-age population due to migrants, but the pandemic has led to an active process of returning a certain part of migrants to their homeland. For this reason, domestic companies that were engaged in hiring labor migrants experienced an acute shortage of labor in the second half of 2020.

3. The natural aging of population and the reduction in the share of young people in the labor force have led to the reduction in supply in the domestic labor market.

These trends have clearly manifested themselves in the Rostov region (Table 1 and Fig. 2) [16].

Table 1

Main demographic indicators of the Rostov region for 2005‒2022

Fig. 2. The working-age population in the Rostov region for 2005‒2020

According to the calculations, population of the Rostov region in 2005‒2020 decreased by 6.0%, and working-age population by 6.8%. A decrease in the number of labor resources poses a serious threat to the economic security of the labor market and may lead to non-fulfillment of strategic indicators of its development. At the same time, there was an increase in population over working age by 13.7%, which led to an increase in the demographic burden coefficient by 19.1%.

Along with these trends in the labor market of the Rostov region, the indicators characterizing migration processes in the region showed positive dynamics (Table 2) [15].

The number of arrivals in the Rostov region from outside Russia increased over the analyzed period by 18.8%. These are mainly migrants from the CIS countries who carry out their activities in Russia, mainly in the service sector.

The number of those who left the Rostov region over the same period (as a percentage of total number of those who left) increased by 17.2%, mainly qualified personnel who hope to find high-paying jobs abroad are leaving.

Thus, the main conclusion can be drawn that in order to eliminate the tendency to reduce the number of labor resources, it is necessary to improve the entire system of labor relations in the country and its regions, primarily in the field of wages, protection of mothers and children, and an increase in the overall level of social protection of population.

Table 2

Indicators of migration processes in the Rostov region for 2005‒2022

The relationship between socio-demographic security and the Human Development Index (HDI) is explained by the fact that it uses very significant social indicators [8, p. 55]:

‒ incomes of population;

‒ the share of incomes of population that is used to purchase food and essential goods;

‒ population health indicators;

‒ indicators of accessibility and quality of education;

‒ level of environmental pollution.

According to the DHI value, Russia is in 52^nd place out of 189 countries with an indicator of 0.824 (available data for 2019) [5]. Moreover, there are regional differences in this indicator, for the Rostov region it is 0.850 [6]. As a guideline for a decent value of the DHI, you can use its value in Moscow — 0.940 (the maximum value in the country).

In order to develop and implement in the practice of Russian regions justified initiatives to improve their sociodemographic security, it is necessary to systematically diagnose this process. At the same time, the diagnosis of socioeconomic security of the region is understood as a set of methods and techniques that ensure the prevention and neutralization of factors that undermine the stability of the regional socio-economic system.

Currently, researchers are proposing various approaches, primarily to assess it.

1. Calculation of a set of interrelated indicators of demographic and social security, for which standardized values are calculated, allowing to calculate the degree of risk of loss of stability of the regional socio-economic system [1].

2. Determination of individual indicators of demographic and social security and, on their basis, integral indicators of the corresponding content [10].

3. Identification of units of indicators of socio-demographic security of the region.

The proposed option is based on the allocation of four units of socio-demographic security of the region with the inclusion of indicators in each of them that adequately reflect the current state of the Russian regions, in the context of its economic and social situation, taking into account the innovative directions of their development (Fig. 3).

The traditional indicators include those presented in the official Collections of the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat) and its territorial branches, as well as the modification of these indicators proposed by various researchers.

The inclusion in the demographic unit of such an indicator as the number of socially vulnerable categories of population is due to the fact that in the context of a shortage of labor resources in the country, they represent a real additional source of active workers in the regions of the country.

Fig. 3. The composition of the units for diagnosing socio-demographic security of the region

The legislation of the Russian Federation does not have a single definition of such a category as “socially unprotected citizens (groups of population)” in certain regulations. These categories of citizens are indicated in relation to certain regulated relationships. The main categories of socially vulnerable categories of citizens are:

‒ disabled people;

‒ orphans, children who were left without parental care;

‒ pensioners;

‒ single mothers;

‒ a graduate of orphanages under the age of 23;

‒ refugees and internal refugees;

‒ persons without a certain place of residence and occupation.

To ensure the employment of these categories, the Russian legislation provides for the creation of social enterprises [15], which can produce products for them, sell such products, i.e. participate in the saturation of the regional market with goods and services. The number of these categories of citizens is presented in various sources: official collections of the State Statistics Committee and its territorial branches, social passports of the regions, as well as in reports of specialized organizations (for example, in the report of the Rostov regional organization of the All-Russian Society of Disabled People).

In the unit “Demography” they should be fully presented and can be the basis for assessing their impact on sociodemographic security of the region. For example, data on the number of pensioners and their value per 100 people are presented in Table 3.

Table 3

The number of pensioners in the Rostov region for 2005‒2022

The number of pensioners in the Rostov region for 2005‒2022 decreased by 2.3%, but their number per 100 people increased by 1.6%, which implies systematic work with this category of citizens to involve them in labor activity taking into account their age.

Such a trend as an increase in the number of single mothers is clearly manifested. In recent decades, the share of single-parent families in Russia has almost doubled: from 21 in 2002 to 38.5 in 2021, every third child is in single-parent families. In almost every third family unit (this is 4.85 million people), care for minor children rests on the shoulders of single women, and in 7.3% of situations (this is 1.13 million people) single fathers are engaged in raising children [19].

One of the main reasons for this sad situation is the increase in the number of divorces (Table 4).

Table 4

The total marriage and divorce rates per 1000 people in the Rostov region for 2005‒2022

The total marriage rate in the calculation of 1000 people of population for the analyzed period decreased by 1.4%, and the total divorce rate also in the calculation of 1000 people of population increased by 14.3%, which should be recognized as a rather significant value and the threat of growth of single-parent families if couples, who had children in marriage, are divorced.

Taking into account the current trends in the labor market, the unit “Employment”, in addition to traditional indicators, should be supplemented, in our opinion, with such as “the number of people of intellectual work” and “the number of employees in platform employment format”.

The problems of labor intellectualization are currently being actively studied on the pages of the economic press, it is emphasized that it is a set of socio-economic processes that are associated with an increase in the share of intellectual work in the process of social reproduction [7, p. 53].

In most cases, intellectual work is considered as a synonym for mental work, which is understood as work that is carried out with a predominance of mental energy, largely associated with the processing of information and the formation of new knowledge, the implementation of high-tech production.

In the official collections of Federal Service of State Statistics and its territorial branches, there is not such an indicator which leads to various options for its calculation. The study showed that the largest part of researchers in the number of intellectual workers includes the following indicators: the number of workers with higher and secondary vocational education; the number employed in science and scientific services; performing the functions of management and scientific and pedagogical workers, as well as workers employed in the scientific departments of enterprises and organizations.

The dynamics of the number of intellectual workers will be the basis for conducting an analysis for its impact on the development of a modern innovative economy and the development of sound management decisions on its current and strategic improvement, especially in terms of the digital economy.

The so-called platform employment has great dynamism in the modern labor market, although as an official indicator it has not yet been presented anywhere, with the exception of sample studies. So far, in Russian legislation, there is no exact definition of platform employment, but most often it is understood as such labor relations that are carried out on the basis of the use of online resources as an intermediary between the employer and the employee.

All platforms in Russia are divided into two types:

‒ aggregates that promote freelance-based employment (such as bookkeeping) when a person does the job remotely and then hands in;

‒ platform resources that bring together the customer and the contractor (for example, a taxi driver).

The principles of working in the platform employment format are quite simple. They are the following:

‒ an aggregator company develops software and then integrates it into an Internet page;

‒ the customer enters the software through a browser or mobile application and leaves their request;

‒ the performer finds an offer suitable for them on the appropriate platform and books it.

At the same time, in the application, the customer indicates the composition of the order, the amount of payment and deadlines.

Before confirming the application, the customer transfers a cash contribution to the aggregator’s account which will be a guarantee of payment for the work done.

According to a number of experts, nowadays about two million people work in Russia in the legal sector of platform employment and about five million illegally. The uncertainty of the current valuation of platform employment is also the reason for a wide range of valuations of its dynamics in the future: from 6-8 million people to 15 million people by 2030. The growth of platform employment is predicted in sectors such as e-commerce, courier delivery, and personal services. In other words, in 5‒6 years, platform employment will be even more significant, this is why it must be reflected in the “Employment” unit [14].

The fourth unit “The impact of SMO on socio-demographic security of the region” can be formed after the publication of official data, as long as the available publications contain a qualitative analysis of the events taking place in this regard.

Discussion and Conclusion. Currently, there are dramatic changes in regional labor markets in Russia under the influence of the technological paradigm 4.0 and the prospects for the sixth technological paradigm. In this regard, the content of the concept of “socio-demographic security” is changing, which is proposed to be considered in the context of expanded reproduction of population and the human development index. The proposed four units of indicators characterizing socio-democratic security of the region, along with traditional ones, include such as “the number of socially vulnerable categories of population”, “the number of persons of intellectual work”, “the number of employees in platform employment format”. Theoretical provisions are accompanied by the analysis of indicators for the Rostov region.

The proposed approach to the comprehensive characterization of socio-demographic security of the Russian region allows taking into account all the trends that are currently characteristic of the dynamics of regional socio-economic systems.